Climatic or regionally induced by humans? Tracing hydro-climatic and land-use changes to better understand the Lake Urmia tragedy

•Joint analysis of human-landscape and climate drivers of lake shrinkage was performed.•Climate change is not the main cause of water level decline in Lake Urmia.•Agricultural vegetation expansion since 2000 has increased upstream water consumption.•Increased water consumption is the likely driver of Lake Urmia desiccation.